
China has accelerated its nuclear-powered submarine production over the past five years, launching vessels faster than the United States and challenging Washington’s long-held undersea advantage, according to a new report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
Between 2021 and 2025, China launched 10 nuclear submarines with a combined tonnage of 79,000 tons, surpassing the U.S.’s 7 submarines at 55,500 tons, based on satellite imagery analysis of shipyards.
This shift reverses trends from 2016-2020, when U.S. output dominated. The IISS report highlights China’s expansion at facilities like Bohai Shipyard in Huludao, where new halls and dry docks support increased construction of advanced Type 093B Shang-class attack submarines and Type 094 Jin-class ballistic missile subs.
Projections from the U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) estimate China’s submarine fleet growing from 66 in 2020 to 76-80 by 2030, with a focus on nuclear capabilities.
The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) anticipates China having 80 submarines by 2035, including more nuclear-powered ones.
China’s approach combines quantity with quality improvements, such as quieter propulsion and better acoustics in models like the Type 096 SSBN, expected in the early 2030s.
While the U.S. maintains superior technology in its all-nuclear fleet of 68 submarines, production lags at about 1.2 per year due to industrial bottlenecks and maintenance delays.
Analysts warn this could erode U.S. dominance in the Western Pacific, especially in scenarios like a Taiwan conflict.
US vs China Submarine Fleet Comparison
| Aspect | United States | China |
|---|---|---|
| Total Subs (2020) | 68 | 66 |
| Projected (2030) | ~66 | 76-80 |
| Nuclear Subs | All 68 nuclear | 12 nuclear (growing) |
| Production Pace | 1.2/year | Faster launches (10 vs 7, 2021- 2025) |
| Key Strengths | Stealth, range, experience | Quantity, rapid build, AIP in diesel subs |
The U.S. is responding with initiatives like AUKUS, sharing nuclear sub tech with Australia, but experts call for increased production to maintain superiority.
China’s buildup is part of its broader naval modernization, aiming for “blue sea” reach beyond Asia. This trend signals a shifting balance in global sea power.








